The announcement that Uganda will build its crude pipeline to Tanga in Tanzania rather than through Kenya has muddied the perception that the latter is the economic hub of the region.
Tanzania’s energetic new President John Magufuli and stellar growth rates make it an ever more attractive prospect for moving goods and basing operations than Kenya, which can present a complex and frustrating operating environment.
The Lamu Port and Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (Lapsset) presents an incredible opportunity for Kenya — a chance to reaffirm its political and economic strategic importance to the region and the continent.
Furthermore, it can add a new pillar to a lopsided economy and reverse the marginalisation that has fuelled poverty and insecurity in northern Kenya.
The Hoima-Tanga pipeline decision should be a clarion call for Kenya’s policy makers that it is time to get serious about Lapsset.
For over a century, the focus and bedrock of the Kenyan economy has been the Northern Corridor — the belt of infrastructure and economic activity stretching from Mombasa through Nairobi to Kisumu and onto the wider region.
This has effectively put all of Kenya’s economic eggs in one basket and the rest of the country, particularly northern Kenya, has suffered for it. By shifting its focus to Lapsset, the government’s development drive will move decisively to reverse decades of marginalisation and this will have a bevy of benefits.
First, it will provide much needed employment and development to a region stretching from Kenya’s northern borders to its Coast; not only will this improve lives, it will be a significant economic stimulus and in the long run — like the Northern Corridor — will provide a second significant driver of growth for the economy.
Second, by providing development in marginalised regions it will temper a major plank of insecurity — Kenya’s north is notorious for banditry and cattle rustling and is a fertile recruiting ground for Al Shabaab; the lack of opportunity is at the heart of this.
The opportunities Lapsset would provide can reverse this trend, not only improving Kenya’s security but that of the wider region.
The Northern Corridor has made Kenya the anchor of the East and Central African economy. Lapsset would do the same for the Horn of Africa, namely Somalia, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, providing a secure outlet for trade, not only with the rest of the world, but between themselves.
Lapsset would also have global implications owing to the fact that the Horn of Africa has been a hotspot of instability, piracy, and terrorism over the past two decades.
Lapsset can provide the bedrock of economic prosperity and opportunity as well as improve access to the various aid and peacekeeping missions operating in the region. For Kenya, the long-term prospect of peace in the north as well as being a strategic linchpin for the Horn of Africa would provide a long-term foundation of economic growth and development.
Since its inauguration Lapsset has experienced false starts and made excruciatingly slow progress. Much of this is due to lack of funding.
The project also seems to have been deprioritised under the Jubilee government, as the focus shifted elsewhere (namely the standard gauge railway and the 5000MW power programme), and while the Kenyatta administration still gives the project lip service it continues to lack significant financial backing either from external sources or from the government.
To make Lapsset a reality, the government must commit fully to the project — first by de-risking it through securing the necessary land (which is the biggest issue in large infrastructure projects in Kenya); second, by deploying resources to engage, and attract investors in Kenya, Africa and around the world; finally, giving the core infrastructure projects (the initial port berths, high voltage transmission lines and key link roads) adequate budgetary support to give the project a kick-start.
Lapsset has the potential to be a game changer for Kenya and the region, providing significant economic opportunity and jobs in the short-term and forming the bedrock of peace and prosperity in the long-term.
It would make Kenya Africa’s premier hub, offering access to the markets stretching from Addis Ababa to Dar es Salaam, ensuring Kenya remains a must-go destination for investment in Africa.
It will be a hugely expensive project and doubtless it will face a number of challenges in its implementation.
However, without a decisive change, Kenya’s north will continue to struggle; its economy will remain precariously perched on the single pillar of the Northern Corridor and the Horn of Africa will be a persistent headache for policy makers around the world.
It will cost more over the long-term to let Lapsset die than it would to implement it, and for that reason it is time to get serious about Lapsset.
Eugene Ngumi is an associate consultant at Africapractice East Africa.
Source: All Africa
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TradeMark Africa.
