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China’s President Xi Jinping convened a summit of some 30 global leaders to discuss what is arguably China’s most ambitious economic project to date: “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR).
Its two main initiatives – the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the Twenty-First Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) – involve billions of dollars’ worth of trade, development and connectivity projects spanning three continents: Africa, Asia and Europe. It is no surprise, then, that OBOR is being projected as China’s articulation of a new global order.
For the moment, *reports seem to suggest that a small group of African states, including Kenya, Djibouti and Egypt, are official participants in OBOR – though certain blueprints and maps also include South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Tanzania. It is inconceivable that South Sudan will not be central to any OBOR strategy targeted at the eastern part of the continent. In addition to serving as a key repository of oil reserves, South Sudan also acts as the end-point for major infrastructure and connectivity projects being planned and implemented in Kenya.
A new railway line is expected to link up Mombasa port, the capital Nairobi, and Kenya’s neighbouring countries. A railway and pipeline is also envisaged to link the ports of Kenya to oilfields in South Sudan and Uganda, while also connecting with Ethiopia, Rwanda and Burundi to facilitate exports of these countries’ products. South Sudan’s significance in an economic integration plan for East Africa is thus indisputable.
For a regional connectivity plan to work, there must be regional stability. With South Sudan currently trapped in a deadly civil war, any plans to regionally integrate East Africa are likely to prove fruitless unless the root causes of the war in South Sudan are immediately addressed. South Sudan’s civil war is no longer a domestic issue. It has spilled over into its neighbouring countries, spurring widespread instability in the region.
The Cost of War
Uganda currently hosts more than 830,000 refugees who have fled the war in South Sudan, while nearly 100,000 are residing in Kenya and more than 140,000 in Ethiopia. As the war rages on, the numbers of refugees, security concerns and other spillover effects will multiply. A report by Frontier Economics entitled South Sudan: The Cost of War, estimated the cost to South Sudan’s neighbours, including Uganda and Kenya, of five years of the war since the beginning of 2016, at $53 billion.
Peace in South Sudan is key to ensuring that everyone in the region shares the economic gains and prosperity generated by OBOR. As China begins to more clearly define and consolidate its vision for OBOR for East Africa, now would be the time for it to drive efforts to create a political environment that would enable OBOR to thrive in the years to come.
For its part, China has supported a number of diplomatic initiatives to end the violence in South Sudan, from participating in the expanded mediation group known as Igad Plus that led to the signing of a peace agreement in August 2015 to chairing a meeting in January 2015 of rival South Sudanese factions to agree upon a plan to accelerate the peace process.
Source: The East African
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TradeMark Africa.