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PUBLISHED ON May 19th, 2016

Uganda: Think for a Minute, What Will Be Happening Around Uganda By 2020

Uganda is pre-occupied with the oppression business, but still few would have missed the announcement by Rwanda a few days ago that it has decided to develop a rail link to the Indian Ocean through Tanzania. Kigali said it is because that option was cheaper and shorter than the route through Kenya.

Why is this important? Because in 2013, when Presidents Yoweri Museveni, Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta, and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame were meeting virtually every two weeks in what the media came to call “the coalition of the willing” to turbo charge regional infrastructure projects, the three agreed to link up to the Kenyan port of Mombasa along a standard-gauge railway estimated to cost $13 billion.

The Dar es Salaam-Isaka-Kigali/Keza-Musongati standard gauge railway project is expected to be completed by March 2018 and is estimated to cost $5.2 billion. This will be yet another boost to Tanzania, and a feather in the cap for its disruptive president John Magufuli. In March, Tanzania and Uganda agreed to build a $4 billion pipeline to transport crude oil from Kabale to Tanga Port in Tanzania.

Uganda chose the Tanzania route, saying it was cheaper than the Kenyan one, had more access infrastructure, and presented fewer complications in securing land for it.

It is not a loss to Kenya, as Rwanda says it will continue using Mombasa too, so it is more a two-port strategy, than an exclusive shift to Dar es Salaam.

This column on April 20, 2016 (See “If you think the Uganda pipeline is about a pipeline, you are dead wrong”) looked at how Magufuli has pushed along forces that were already at play in the region. It noted that the East African logic of the last 20 years, was based on the fact that Tanzania would always be lukewarm towards the East African Community (EAC), and have its heart more in the Southern African Development Community.

Since the death of Nyerere in 1999, there had been a growing anti-Rwanda sentiment in the Tanzanian establishment, which reached its worst point under former president Jakaya Kikwete.

When Magufuli went to Rwanda in April, his first trip as president since he was sworn in in November, and attended the 22nd genocide memorial, you could say it sealed the railway deal. Kigali pulled out all the stops for him.

Today, we will not dwell on the politics. We will focus on a spin off. Rwanda did the same thing with its fibre optic link to the Indian Ocean, building a connection through Uganda and Kenya, and through Tanzania.

In several ways, then, its railway, like the Uganda oil pipeline, is going to shape the “innovation corridors” in the region. To begin with, new train services will soon not make sense, if they don’t have Internet.

With free movement of East Africans across borders, the places with the fastest and cheapest Internet connection will be the ones to which innovative young East Africans who can only afford bus and ticket fare can get to quickly and affordably.

The Kenya-Uganda Railway had a great impact on how industries were located, and several towns emerged in Uganda along it. But also, how cosmopolitan those towns became. Thus outside Kampala, Lugazi, then Jinja, and Tororo, were the cosmopolitan towns in the sense of having other East Africans working there, and by extension also determined the shape of the early trade union movement in the country.

The modern-day equal phenomenon, we believe, will be determined by the confluence of fibre optics, railway lines, and air travel. It is significant that Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda all have ambitious plans to expand their airports, and they are in various stages of completion.

Uganda has something on paper, but has not broken ground. With the present political climate, it will probably be a while before there is a return to enlightened government and a focus on building things that make the economy competitive.

In any event, the investments in airport expansions and redevelopment recognise that global talent is on the move, and those who will win the innovation game are the ones who will have the means to move and collect them in one place.

Also note that all the East African countries (minus Burundi and South Sudan) are also in a race to develop their own technology cities.

The country that takes the prize in this innovation contest is the one that shifts regional talent and their equipment through new railway and road networks, and brings them together with the global wave, through modern airports.

With broadband, all the winners have to do is sit back, let the people get on with it, as it watches the magic unfold.

Source: All Africa

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TradeMark Africa.

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