In most of Africa, leaders have unfettered control over the state apparatus. Because of this, it is always difficult to wish away their banter as mere rhetoric, however much it is divorced from official government policy.

There are two things to note here. One, President Museveni is a teetotaller whose public off- the script statements are always measured almost to a mathematical detail. In fact, his remarks at the swearing-in ceremony against the International Criminal Court (ICC), however repulsive they may be deemed, may not have been unintended.

Two, Uganda and the ICC continue to enjoy a tumultuous relationship. For example, following the ICC’s indictment of Joseph Kony and his lieutenants, USA deployed its special forces in the vast jungles of central Africa to bolster UPDF and other forces hunting for the elusive rebel leader.

In fact, when Dominic Ongwen was captured, Uganda’s objection to try him in The Hague rather than in Uganda was, at best, lukewarm. The implication of this is that Uganda, a signatory of the Rome Statute that gave birth to the ICC, recognises both the jurisdiction of ICC and its significance.

It is safe to say that Mr Museveni’s continued stay in power continues to rattle many global power centres. In some countries, there has been an overt demand for a peaceful power transition.

These countries, led by USA, ironically do not recognise the ICC, are known to use any instruments at their disposal either to whip stubborn leaders or push for their agenda. This is how ICC comes in with its emphasis on governance and human rights. The Bretton Woods institutions have been useful instruments but their relevance has been watered down by the emergence of Russia and China.

These two global powers are willing to support any African leader regardless of whether they adhere to the tenets of democracy, conform to the observance and promotion of human rights, or not. Hence, ICC has become a potent weapon that may be used to punish some of the obstinate African leaders. This is what informs the anxiety, although largely conjectural, that the ICC loop is closing in on more African leaders.

The Russian and Chinese imprint is registered all over recent multimillion dollar business transactions with Uganda.

By so doing, Mr Museveni is not nursing any leftist hangover left in him since 1980s; rather this is a pointer that he is willing to work more closely with any state, notably Russia and China. Perhaps, this could be the reason why President Museveni, at his wearing in ceremony, said Russia and China are not arrogant.

Yet, the same Western powers that project themselves as beacons of democracy and good governance continue to work with Museveni and other African leaders with tainted records. President Museveni, for example, remains a steadfast ally of USA in containing extremist forces in the region, a position that he leverages to fortify his grip onto power, and at times that affords him a leeway to attack America and Europe. This is Mr Museveni’s trump card.

However, the President knows a complete swing to the East would be suicidal.

For now, the President is at a vantage position that allows him to tap support from the Western powers and also throw an occasional jibe at them while at the same time trading with the Eastern bloc.

Source: All Africa

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