Escalating tensions between the US and China could hurt a global trade expansion that’s already expected to be lower this year than in 2017, the World Trade Organization said Thursday. The Geneva-based body warned that there are signs a looming global standoff is already affecting business confidence and investment decisions, possibly jeopardizing the projected growth, Bloomberg reported. The warning chimes with that of Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund, who cautioned on Wednesday that the world economy must avoid being sucked into a protectionist spiral. The global trading system, which has reduced extreme poverty, cut living costs and created millions of high-paying jobs, “is now in danger of being torn apart,” she said. “This important progress could be quickly undermined if governments resort to restrictive trade policies, especially in a tit-for-tat process that could lead to an unmanageable escalation,” WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said in a prepared statement. “It is not possible to accurately map out the effects of a major escalation, but clearly it could be serious,” Azevedo told a news conference in presenting the WTO report. He said that “risks to the forecast are significant and they are predominantly on the downside” while adding that technically a trade war has not started. Cycle of Retaliation Trade growth could suffer as a result of Trump’s pugnacious approach to trade and his administration’s preference for unilateral tariffs rather than negotiated solutions within the context of the WTO. His stance has already generated strong backlash from China. “A cycle of...

Africa’s increasing integration has been much talked about over the past couple of weeks. The progress displayed on this project is one for which Africa’s political leadership deserves praise, and is one of the most significant developments on the contitnet for many years. Africa’s cooperation efforts date back to 1963, but attempts to achieve this broad strategic objective have failed over the years. The signing of the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) deal by 45 of the African Union’s 55 member states marks a watershed moment for African integration. With the dream of an interconnected Africa now closer than ever before, the continent could welcome new economic opportunities in the coming decade. However, the fragmentation of the African market remains its most significant challenge.  Transportation and communication costs are high when compared to other markets such as China, Europe, or the US. These high costs are holding back the development of integrated supply chains throughout the continent. Africa is headed in the right direction though, with initiatives such as the recent common air transport market, that could drive down airfares, as well as plans for visa-free travel for Africans across the continent. Infrastructure in Africa is just beginning to develop. Ambitious schemes like the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport Corridor Project (LAPSSET) in Kenya are what the continent needs. LAPSSET is an attempt to build a transport and logistics hub which would cement Kenya as a gateway to the East African subregion. The rail network is growing quickly, though only with the borders of specific countries. However, the East...

Entrepreneur, and philanthropist, Tony O. Elumelu will lead a 5-day working visit to East Africa, where he will meet withnational leaders of Kenya and Uganda. In his capacity as Chairman of United Bank for Africa (UBA), Mr. Elumelu will travel to Uganda (April 10) and Kenya (April 12) to meet with the Executive Presidents of both nations, Uhuru Kenyatta and Yoweri K. Musevenito discuss issues around the growth and development of the their economies, enabling entrepreneurship, infrastructure financing, regional economic growthand how the private sector in Africa can work in shared purpose alongside African governments to create prosperity for all Africans. On the side lines of these engagements, the Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF) will gather members of the full local ecosystem – from investors to academia to established and emerging entrepreneurs alike – for an entrepreneurship ecosystem event. During the event, TEF alumni and members of the vibrant Kenyan and Ugandan entrepreneurship communities will receive insights from guest speakers who will provide practical, practicable information to help the audience develop their businesses and their business management skills. Guest speakers include leaders from TEF partner Microsoft and other ecosystem players including Google. During the visit, Elumelu will also meet with key stakeholders and policy makers in the countries to discuss infrastructural funding opportunities, as well as interact with leading private and public sectors players. He will host a Founder’s Forum with students of Makerere University, Kampala and University of Nairobi, two leading African institutions. At this Forum he will give young Africans...

The search for a single East African currency is set to go a notch higher as the regional parliament prepares laws for setting up key institutions. The East African Legislative Assembly (Eala) has said its committees are using the three-week Dodoma sittings, which began on April 9 to collect views on the East Africa Monetary Institute (EAMI) Bill, 2017 and the Statistics Bureau Bill, 2017, which had earlier sailed through the first and second readings. The Monetary Institute Bill seeks to set up EAMI as an agency to initially perform the role of a regional central bank. It will be expected to craft policies required to back a single currency. The EA Statistics Bureau Bill will on the other hand create a regional agency akin to European Union’s Eurostat, charged with gathering data  to guide decision making within the EAC Monetary Union. The Eala’s Committee on Communications and Trade is currently engaging with stakeholders on the regional Statistics Bureau Bill while its General Purpose Committee is handling views on the EAC Monetary Institute Bill. The East African ministers, including Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for East African Community and Northern Corridor Development Peter Munya, are among the stakeholders on queue to exchange views with the Eala committees. “The Council of Ministers for EAC is thus expected to meet with the committees to thrash out key matters on both Bills,” Eala said in a statement The two agencies are among the enabling institutions whose absence has delayed the region’s match to a single...

The creation of a continental free trade area across the African continent poses unique conflict of interest challenges for the signatories. Last month, African leaders descended upon Kigali, Rwanda, the Land of a Thousand Hills’ capital, to ink an agreement that is meant to smoothen the rough terrain of intra-African trade. Nearly 50 years after independence movements swept across Africa, the continent is still struggling to find its footing. The challenges are exacerbated by both the internal makeup of the countries and a shifting geopolitical environment. In 2014, African heads of state saw a rare invite to Washington by the Obama administration to discuss trade, investment and security. This was seen as a counterbalance to the growing Chinese influence on the continent; by 2014 China-Africa trade totaled $200 billion, up from approximately $100 billion during the 2008 financial crisis. With the chaotic and confusing nature of the geopolitical challenges and the continued courting of African countries by both Beijing, through the new and ambition Belt and Road Initiative, and by the Washington security gospel, Africa finds itself in a position where it has to define its fortunes. By 2010, trade between African countries was only 11%, compared to 50% within Asia, 21% in Latin America and Caribbean, with Europe leading at 70% of internal trade. The picture is not of a continent that less than 130 years ago had no artificial boundaries and where its people traded and migrated freely. The African Union has embarked on an initiative that is...

Ecobank Kenya Wednesday launched the Emerald Ecobank Business Club aimed at widening opportunities for its Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) customers by creating direct linkages between businesses operation in 33 African Markets with over 12.8 million customers. Members of the club will also get access to direct networking platforms, market information as well as business advisory services from the Ecobank, associated partners, external trade facilitation and preferential banking among others. The Emerald Ecobank Business Club will focus on bolstering intra-Africa trade leveraging on the Bank’s presence in 33 African markets enabling SMEs to leverage on Ecobank’s customer book to authenticate and vet trading partners across the continent. Speaking during the media launch, Ecobank Kenya Executive Director, Head of Commercial Banking Kenya & EAC Humphrey Muturi noted that the launch of the new Business Club is a wider strategy by the bank to grow SME sector by offering direct linkages and a seamless base of transaction for Kenyan businesses and their counterparts across the continent. “As a pan African bank, we recognize the pivotal role that emerging businesses play in our economy, thus our target is to empower our SME customers by availing networking opportunities across our network of 33 African countries to help them grow with us. Most SMEs here in Kenya and generally across Africa face capacity challenges either in terms of technical knowledge on how businesses operate across the continent or in terms of access to opportunities to forge partnership. Emerald Ecobank Business Club members will therefore in...

I am a concerned citizen who always travels across borders, but has failed to see the benefits of the East African Community. Recently, I travelled to watch the 2018 Safari Rally in Kenya in which Uganda sent two representatives (Jas Mangat and Duncan Mubiru). However, Ugandans were treated as if we were from another planet. From the border to all the rally sections, the moment Kenyan traffic police officers saw Ugandan-registered number plates; they would stop and hold you until you gave them money. They asked between KShs 500 [approximately Shs 16,000] and KShs 2,000 [approximately Shs 64,000]. I was personally stopped seven times; and on the eighth one, I complained and tried to confront them. They immediately took me to their express court where I was fined KShs 15,000 (about Shs 480,000). At the road block where they arrested me, I had all they asked for but one officer told me my vehicle was dirty! It had been raining from the time I left Jinja to Nairobi. Funny enough, when I reached the court, they changed the statement and said I did not have a safety reflector triangle. I hope EALA MPs, the minister of East African Community Affairs and respective embassies can look into this matter; otherwise, we are losing hope in the EAC. Keith Ssali Isaac, Deputy mayor, Nansana municipality. Ochola has started on a positive note Since the new inspector general of police, Martin Okoth Ochola, took over the mantle, changes have been made within the force....

Forty-four African leaders gathered in Kigali last month and signed a continental free-trade agreement (FTA). By so doing, they laid the foundation stone for the creation of an enormous free-trade area that will likely facilitate regional integration and inspire economic growth across the continent. Although I support this leap of faith, I am not too sure that the negotiations leading up to this treaty have exhausted all points of friction. Implementing the treaty will certainly require some nurturing of relationships and massive support from citizens of every African country. This is so because the FTA is a product of pronouncements from top leadership without details that matter in such agreements. This process first started in October 2008, when the East African Community (EAC), Southern African Development Community, and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) held a summit that birthed the African Free Trade Zone (AFTZ). In 2012, it was extended to the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU). MASSIVE MARKET In June 2015, at the African Union summit in South Africa, negotiations started to create a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) with all 55 African Union states by 2017. A continental free-trade policy means there will be no restrictions on imports from, or exports to, any African country except for South Africa or Nigeria unless they accede at some point in the future. Nevertheless, even without these two giant states, FTA members...

The EAC Monetary Institute Bill, 2017 and the EAC Statistics Bureau Bill, 2017, are two key pieces of draft legislations on agenda as the East Africa Legislative Assembly (EALA) moves its sitting to Dodoma, Tanzania starting today, Monday. The regional House’s first ever sitting in Tanzania’s designate capital – which starts today Monday and ends on April 28 – is to be presided over by Speaker, Martin Ngoga, with Tanzanian President Dr John Pombe Joseph Magufuli expected to address the Assembly at a special sitting sometime next week. The two pieces of legislation are critical in the eventual set up of the East African Monetary Union (EAMU), the East African Community’s third pillar of integration preceding the ultimate phase – the EAC Political Federation. Partner States negotiated a Protocol for establishment of the EAMU which was signed by regional leaders in November 2013. The EAMU protocol provides for the establishment of four support institutions: the East African Monetary Institute – a precursor to the East African Central Bank – which was supposed to be set up by December 2015 but never happened, and the East African Statistics Bureau (2018), among others. In March, when MP Dr Pierre Celestin Rwigema (Rwanda) asked the Council of Ministers to inform the House about the status of implementation of the third and fourth pillars of the integration during the last sitting in Arusha, Tanzania, Dr Ali Kirunda Kivejinja, Chairperson of the Council of Ministers, said the EAC Secretariat – the executive organ of the...

Some 73 companies are on track for expedited payment of refunds and reduced customs security checks after they enrolled in an East African Community (EAC) programme to promote regulatory compliance, enhance trade and improve border security. The firms will reap other benefits of the programme, named Authorised Economic Operators (AEO), including automatic passing of their declarations and will undergo no physical examination of goods except where risks are high, among others. The incentives apply to multinationals as well as small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that have joined the programme. 73 companies Among private sector organisations to benefit from the AEO programme are Mitchel Cotts Freight, Mzuri Sweets Ltd and Umoja Rubber. "Seventy three companies have so far been enrolled in the programme since it was introduced over three years ago. The EAC targets to enrol over 500 companies in the next five years," said Duncan Karari, Communications Manager at German international development organisation GIZ which provides technical support for the initiative. GIZ is also supporting the EAC integration process and its development goals.Mr Karari said the programme is headed for roll-out. Regional customs The AEO initiative -- launched to reform regional customs services -- targets more than 500 companies, indicating that over 400 more are expected to join in due course. Under the scheme, firms involved in international trade are scrutinised and certified as AEO. The programme is open to all players including clearing agents, revenue authorities and standards bodies. The programme is expected to reduce the cost of doing...