Kigali — Reflecting efforts to boost intra-regional trade and investment, 26 African countries have recently agreed to establish a Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) by January 2016. The TFTA agreement comprises the East African Community (EAC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). With a total population of 638 million people and a total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD 1.2 trillion, the TFTA will create Africa's largest free trade area. In one of the first papers to quantify the potential benefits from the TFTA, UNECA economists Andrew Mold and Rodgers Mukwaya suggest the TFTA could boost intra-regional trade by USD 8.5 billion. Particularly interesting is the fact that the economic sectors most likely to benefit are the industrial sectors - such as processed foods, light manufacturing and heavy manufacturing, providing an important impulse to regional industrialisation. The authors also speculate that, if the elimination of tariffs is accompanied by measures to remove non-tariff barriers and infrastructural deficits, the potential gains could be much larger. The TFTA is estimated to increase regional welfare by US$2.4 billion, with South African consumers being among the main beneficiaries. Other principal beneficiaries include Angola, D.R. Congo, Tanzania and Egypt. The paper also addresses concerns that industrial production in the TFTA may concentrate in the countries with the highest productivity levels - namely, Egypt and South Africa. The simulation results suggest that these fears are exaggerated, with little evidence of concentration of industries in the larger...
Tripartite agreement could boost intra-regional trade by one third
Posted on: October 9, 2015
Posted on: October 9, 2015